The airline industry is expected to grow 47% next year, according to London-based global aviation analysis firm Cirium.
In its second annual review of Airline Insights, it says the large increase in 2022 indicates capacity could return to 2015 levels by the end of next year.
Cirium said last year, the pandemic and its aftermath wiped out 15 years of growth in global passenger capacity – based on the total number of seats stolen – in a matter of months, reducing capacity in 2020 to levels never before seen. seen in 2005.
Regions with strong domestic markets have experienced an accelerated recovery this year, particularly in the United States and China. In fact, Chinese domestic flights are up 6% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Cirium noted that in the 10 months leading up to Oct. 31, 78 percent of the flights tracked were domestic flights.
In Australia, Qantas and Virgin Australia will have recovered most of their workforce by the end of the month as well as most of their domestic fleet.
Virgin Australia is increasing its fleet from 58 to 84, while Rex has announced that it will add eight more 737s to its list of six and that newcomer Bonza will have eight aircraft in its first 12 months of operation.
Jeremy Bowen, CEO of Cirium, said that “the past year has had its challenges as we have continued to deal with fluctuating cases of COVID-19, new variants – most recently at Omicron – and programs various vaccination programs by country ”.
“Cirium experts analyzed the 2021 data and made predictions for 2022 and beyond. Towards the end of 2022, global capacity will return to 2015 levels, as we see a sharp increase in the number of seats returning to the skies.
According to Cirium, global domestic traffic (measured in number of passengers) is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, with international passenger traffic expected to reach two-thirds of 2019 levels.
It also predicts that the global in-service passenger fleet will grow to 20,700 by the end of 2022, a few hundred less than at the end of 2019 before the pandemic.
Cirium believes the slow recovery in business travel seen so far will change in 2022, with industry forecasts that there will be a 36% increase in business travel year-over-year. .
And the impact of aviation on climate change will be at the center of passenger concerns, according to this advice.
“Cirium predicts that the return to normal will place more emphasis on sustainable travel practices, including younger, more fuel-efficient aircraft, and the ability to more accurately measure the impact of air travel on emissions. global greenhouse gases, ”Bowen said.
It says airlines are bringing more fuel-efficient fleets back to service and sustainability has become a priority in aviation, many are looking at fuel consumption and how to meet net zero targets in 2050 .